Maxim analyst Jason McCarthy reiterated a Hold rating on shares of pharmaceutical giant Gilead Sciences, Inc (NASDAQ:GILD), after discussing with GILD management about the launch of Genvoya and other HIV products.
The analyst adjusted his model to reflect the cannibalization of Stribild, Complera and Truvada. As a result, his top-line revenue in 2016 has increased by $76M to $30.09B, $30.9B in 2017, and $31.8B in 2018 respectively, compared to our prior estimates of $30.7B in 2017 and $30.9B in 2018.
McCarthy noted, “Our model now factors in our forecast for patient switch trends from other Gilead products in the HIV marketplace. For example, we have been seeing the cannibalization of Stribild by Genvoya since its launch in both the U.S. and EU in November 2015. Approximately 50% of patients currently on Genvoya were previously on Stribild.” Furthermore, “We also include new revenue models for Odefsey and Descovy, which were approved in the U.S. in March and April 2016, respectively (and immediately launched) and are updated versions of Complera and Truvada. We expect to see revenues being recognized in 2Q16.”
According to TipRanks.com, which measures analysts’ and bloggers’ success rate based on how their calls perform, analyst Jason McCarthy has a yearly average return of -7% and a 31% success rate. McCarthy has a -23% average return when recommending GILD, and is ranked #3607 out of 3929 analysts.
Out of the 23 analysts polled by TipRanks, 17 rate Gilead Sciences stock a Buy, while 6 rate the stock a Hold. With a return potential of 39%, the stock’s consensus target price stands at $115.17.