The most anticipated report of the entire earnings season will be released after today’s closing bell. Wells Fargo analyst Maynard Um and BMO Capital analyst Tim Long weighed in on Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) earnings.
Heading into this evening’s call, Wells Fargo’s Maynard Um expects earnings to be in-line with Street estimates, modeling revenue of $51.7 billion and earnings of $2.01, compared to the Wall Street consensus of $52 billion and $2.00, respectively.
However, he notes that the company may post below the Street’s estimates of $47.4 billion in revenue and $1.76 in earnings for the next quarter. His estimates pin Apple at $45.2 billion in revenue and $1.64 in earnings for the next quarter. Jumping forward to the 2016 holiday season, the analyst already projects that the tech giant can sell more than 80 million iPhone units. Um notes that this figure is higher than the market expectation, but he comments that an inevitable iPhone 7 launch is not yet incorporated into share prices.
The analyst reiterated an Outperform rating on Apple shares, with a price target range between $120 and $130.
According to TipRanks.com, which measures analysts’ and bloggers’ success rate based on how their calls perform, analyst Maynard Um has a yearly average return of 13.2% and a 59% success rate. Um has a 21% average return when recommending AAPL, and is ranked #200 out of 3906 analysts.
Next up, Tim Long of BMO Capital weighed in on Apple before the earnings release, though he is not as bullish as the rest of the Apple analysts. Long expects the company to post earnings of $2.03, revenue of $52.6 billion, and iPhone shipments between 50-52 million.
However, Long quickly notes that most attention will be focused on the company’s guidance for the next quarter, for which he believes Apple will sell 44 million iPhones, in-line with Wall Street estimates. Long explains, “We believe sentiment has gotten worse over the past two weeks as supply chain data points have become more negative.” He continues, “With the September launch of the next-generation iPhone approaching in five months, we expect to start seeing increased speculation over its features and ability to draw a strong upgrade cycle.”
The analyst explains that investors should also be looking for updates on new Apple products, such as a refreshed Apple TV, the iPad Pro, and Apple Music. Long comments, “While none of these is likely to grow to be the size of the iPhone business, continued innovation beyond smartphones will become increasingly important over the next few years.” He continues, “In addition, we are heading into a period in which we should see a number of refreshes, including the Mac, Watch, and iPhone,” though still warns about supply chain data points for these products.
Since the analyst is concerned with supply chain figures, he reiterates a Neutral rating ahead of earnings with a $130 price target, marking a 25% upside from current levels. According to TipRanks, Tim Long has a 43% success rate recommending stocks with a 2.6% average return per rating.
As of this writing, 33 of the 35 analysts covering the stock are bullish on AAPL, while the remaining 2 are neutral. The average 12-month price target between these 35 analysts is $137.21, marking a 30% potential upside from current levels.