Cantor Maintains Hold On eBay Inc (EBAY) As Business Trends Expected To Remain Weak Throughout 1Q:16


In a research report sent to investors Wednesday, Cantor analyst Youssef Squali reiterated a Hold rating on shares of eBay Inc (NASDAQ:EBAY) with a price target of $24, as his checks indicate no meaningful improvement in visitation to eBay or pickup in Same-Store Sales (SSS) so far in 1Q:16.

Squali wrote, “US desktop uniques (UVs) to eBay sites (ex. StubHub) were down 12% Y/Y in Jan/Feb vs. -3% in 4Q:15. Normalizing for tougher comps, Y/Y growth in UVs improved ~200bps vs. 4Q:15 levels. Mobile visitation appears to be soft as well, with Y/Y growth in mobile visits decelerating ~800bps over 4Q levels (normalized).” Furthermore, “SSS was up 4% Y/Y in January and 5.3% in February (excl. one extra day) for merchants selling on eBay, showing no meaningful change vs. 2015 levels and materially below the double digit growth in ecommerce overall.”

The analyst concluded, “While management’s focus on key initiatives around structured data should arguably pay-off over time, we view this as a multi-year journey, and have yet to see any discernible impact on traffic or GMV so far.”

According to TipRanks.com, which measures analysts’ and bloggers’ success rate based on how their calls perform, analyst Youssef Squali has a total average return of 14.1% and a 63% success rate. Squali has a 16.7% average return when recommending EBAY, and is ranked #16 out of 3757 analysts.

Out of the 30 analysts polled by TipRanks, 21 rate Ebay stock a Hold, while 9 rate the stock a Buy. With a return potential of 18%, the stock’s consensus target price stands at $28.44.

 

 

  • And I say SELL, SELL, SELL EBAY …

    ““There are a lot of questions out there and I don’t have any of the answers,”—eBay CEO Devin Wenig, Goldman Sachs Technology And Internet Conference, 10 Feb. 2016.

    Notwithstanding the otherwise constant stream of disingenuous and delusional nonsense that flows from eBay/PayPal, the share price history of these two clunky operators demonstrate the reality …

    Aug 2007: (pre John Donahoe) EBAY ~$40; AMZN ~$40;
    Jul 2015 (pre eBay-PayPal split): EBAY ~$66; AMZN ~$480;
    Jul 2015 (post-split): PYPL ~$37; EBAY ~$28; AMZN ~$530;
    Currently: PYPL ~$40; EBAY ~$24; AMZN ~$560—LOL …

    PayPal is standing still, and eBay is effectively going backwards—at a rate of knots …

    Notwithstanding the “spin-off” of PayPal from eBay, eBay and “PreyPal” remain effectively joined at the hip, and anyone that thinks otherwise is simply uninformed; and, thanks to a continuation of most of the destructive policies introduced over the eight year reign (2007–2015) of the “Pain from Bain”, John Joseph Donahoe II, the eBay marketplace is continuing on its slow journey down the toilet; nevertheless, during Johnny Ho’s occupation of the eBay corner office, this cretin and his gang of hand-picked Keystone Kops still managed to obtain for themselves massive, unearned, “performance” bonuses—while the company’s “long” shareholders received not a single penny.

    PayPal is a clunky, non-bank-licensed, non-deposit-insured, virtually non-regulated, “pretend” bank; a higher fee-charging payments intermediary that, in the main, rides on the back of the world’s banks’ existing payments systems, with no formal agreement with those banks other than PayPal’s operating of a credit card merchant account facility with, and the making of direct debits/credits on some users’ bank accounts via, one of those real banks.

    PayPal is, in its own words, “a merchant of sorts”, it is not a licensed “bank”; virtually everything that “PreyPal” does is done via “marketing” arrangements with licensed financial institutions—for example, look for the identity of the actual credit provider (in the micro print) on their credit providing instruments …

    Funds received via “PreyPal” are at risk of being subjected to arbitrary holds; funds left “on deposit” with PayPal are not FDIC-insured. Even more perilous (for PayPal’s shareholders), the great majority of PayPal’s business originates from its (still) effectively mandated place on the eBay marketplace, so it logically follows that—with the destructive Johnny Ho-Ho-Ho now sitting at the head of the PayPal boardroom table—”PreyPal” will undoubtedly be accompanying eBay on its journey to the sewage farm.

    The reality is, PayPal’s parasitic, higher fee-charging payments operation has little long-term future outside of its mandated place on the atrophying eBay marketplace now that professional online/mobile payments offerings from MasterCard (“MasterPass”) and Visa (“Visa Checkout”) are available to any online merchant that has (or can obtain) a credit card merchant account with a real bank.

    And, with respect particularly to “mobile” payments, notwithstanding Apple Pay’s disappointing initial showing, methinks Apple Pay, Samsung Pay, Android Pay, “MasterPass”, and “Visa Checkout”, that is, those operators that have formal relationships with the retail banks and MasterCard/Visa, will soon enough throttle the flow of oxygen to a great deal of the clunky PayPal’s parasitic operations.

    PayPal users should never give PayPal an authority to direct debit their bank accounts; PayPal should only ever be given access to funds via a real-bank credit card account; that way your credit card-issuing bank will be the final arbiter of any transaction dispute; similarly, sellers should never accept payment via PayPal for goods that are going to be picked up by the buyer; PayPal offers sellers zero protection from scammers in such circumstances.

    PayPal’s one-time adoptive parent, eBay, is likely the most unscrupulous commercial entity operating on this planet; but, have no fear, eBay is an equal-opportunity fraudster; demonstrably, they will knowingly aid and abet the defrauding of buyers by unscrupulous eBay merchants who bid on their own auctions, and, conversely, of honest sellers by unscrupulous buyers—as long as there is a financial benefit in such fraud for eBay.

    And if anyone thinks that the clunky “PreyPal” is any more scrupulous—given their equally poor customer service and lack of any mediation of transaction disputes by human beings which effectively results in a hard-wired bias towards buyers/payers that they now necessarily have to pander to—good luck to all you small online merchants who may get burned in the process …

    In the meantime, Pierre Omidyar can only dream about how much more fabulously wealthier he might have been had he not given the cretinous Johnny Ho the key to the eBay corner office; yet, incomprehensibly, he has allowed this headless turkey to now occupy the seat at the head of the boardroom table at “PreyPal.”—LOL!

    eBay’s auction format has been atrophying ever since 2008 when the cretinous Johnny Ho further anonymized bidder IDs to better hide, and further aid and abet, demonstrably rampant shill bidding fraud on consumers by unscrupulous sellers. As time has passed, fewer and fewer people remain naïve enough to still believe that, contrary to its claims, eBay has ever had any intention of protecting consumers from such rampant auction fraud—from which eBay profits. And, eBay raised their take on final value fee to 10% a few years ago and removed tiers that would reduce the amount on higher value items. And so, eBay as a whole has likewise, and deservedly, continued to atrophy.

    In early January eBay invited consumers to auction their unwanted Xmas gifts on eBay. And, if you didn’t know what your unwanted gift may be worth, eBay’s advice was to start the auction at 99c and watch the fun—as your item likely sold for 99c—always presuming you weren’t bidding on the auction yourself (and assuming that you or anyone else was able to find the listing in eBay’s manipulated search), in which case you would likely finish up buying it yourself; but that’s OK with eBay too; they don’t mind whether the sale is real or faux, as long as they get their final valuation fee.

    The eBay executive suite—where the incompetent mingle with the disingenuous, the unscrupulous, the malevolent and the outright criminal, and the just plain stupid …

    The ugly reality of eBay’s calculated, demonstrable, facilitation of endemic shill bidding fraud on consumers on its auctions marketplace—Google “Shill Bidding on eBay: Case Study #5”

    And, goodbye clunky PayPal—it’s not been nice knowing you—Google “Retail Payments: The Reality”