Gold closed in New York at $1,268.00 up from $1,260.80 in New York on Monday. In Asia on Tuesday, it moved higher to $1,274 and then in London until the LBMA price setting was set at $1,274.10 up from $1,267.60 yesterday. The dollar index is slightly lower at 97.17 down from 97.61 on Monday.

The dollar is down against the euro at $1.1009 from $1.0963 Monday. The gold price in the euro was set at €1,157.33 down from €1,156.25.

Ahead of New York’s opening, the gold price was trading at $1,277.70 and in the euro at €1,159.86.

Silver Today – The silver price closed in New York at $15.65 up 16 cents.  Ahead of New York’s opening the silver price stood at $15.67.

Price Drivers

China saw 25% lower exports last month, but that month included the week long Chinese Lunar New Year, so a lower figure was expected. Likewise imports dropped 13%+. Because of that the falls should not be taken as a ‘hard landing’ for China. But it is clear that global growth is declining steadily. Monetary policy certainly won’t reverse this. Therefore the environment for gold remains positive and will do until governments across the world take effective action to promote growth.

Gold ETFs The holdings of both the SPDR gold ETF and the Gold Trust remained the same yesterday. This is the second day running that the holdings were barely changed and yet the gold price keeps pushing higher, slowly, but surely. This certainly does not have the appearance of a ‘spike’ but a steady solid set of rises.

COMEX  is seeing short covering and increases in long positions. A look at today and yesterday’s gold price shows that COMEX is no longer leading the way, but following prices as they rise now. Dealers too are getting more confidence in the gold price holding these levels.

We do see gold and silver markets remaining very volatile in New York in the coming days as liquidity levels remain under visible pressure. However, after yesterday, we expect the volatility to come in taking gold higher. Bear in mind, please, that physical gold buying in these markets does not create ‘spikes’. We expect COMEX to cause volatility as liquidity pressures continue, while London calms the market.

Silver – The silver price looks like it will hold its gains and move higher with gold.