Chris Ciovacco

About the Author Chris Ciovacco

Chris Ciovacco is the founder and CEO of Ciovacco Capital Management (CCM), an independent money management firm serving individual investors nationwide. The thoroughly researched and backtested CCM Market Model answers these important questions: (1) How much should we allocate to risk assets?, (2) How much should we allocate to conservative assets?, (3) What are the most attractive risk assets?, and (4) What are the most attractive conservative assets? Chris is an expert in identifying the best ETFs from a wide variety of asset classes, including stocks, bonds, commodities, and precious metals. The CCM Market Model compares over 130 different ETFs to identify the most attractive risk-reward opportunities. Chris graduated summa cum laude from The Georgia Institute of Technology with a co-operative degree in Industrial and Systems Engineering. Prior to founding Ciovacco Capital Management in 1999, Mr. Ciovacco worked as a Financial Advisor for Morgan Stanley in Atlanta for five years earning a strong reputation for his independent research and high integrity. While at Georgia Tech, he gained valuable experience working as a co-op for IBM (1985-1990). During his time with Morgan Stanley, Chris received extensive training which included extended stays in NYC at the World Trade Center. His areas of expertise include technical analysis and market model development. CCM’s popular weekly technical analysis videos on YouTube have been viewed over 700,000 times. Chris’ years of experience and research led to the creation of the thoroughly backtested CCM Market Model, which serves as the foundation for the management of separate accounts for individuals and businesses.

Major Indexes Testing Important Levels

Monthly Labor Report

All eyes will be on this week’s monthly labor report. The report, which is due Friday at 8:30 am ET, may impact the outcome of the Fed’s December meeting.

Friday’s non-farm payrolls report will also impact how the major indexes act near areas of possible resistance. Use this link to see a larger version of the chart below as of Monday’s close.

Is The Bigger Picture Starting To Favor Lower Lows?

This week’s stock market video looks at the market’s current risk-reward profile in the context of Friday’s late session sell-off and areas of possible resistance. The video also compares similarities and differences between 2011 and 2015.

Industrial Stocks Also Near Important AreaVideo

Like the S&P 500, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is near a possible inflection point. Stock market bears prefer to see the index rejected near the upper downward-sloping blue line. Stock market bulls are pulling for the “breakout” scenario this week. Use this link to see a larger version of the chart below as of Monday’s close.

Investment Implications – The Weight Of The Evidence

There are three major scenarios facing the stock market:

  1. Rally on to new highs.
  2. Pullback, then rally to new highs.
  3. Weakness carries equities to new lows.

Based on the facts we have in hand today, the higher probability outcomes appear to be 1 and 2 above. While the new low scenario’s probability is not zero, the weight of the evidence tracked by our market modelfavors bullish outcomes looking out several weeks/months. The previous sentences are subject to change if the data begins to deteriorate; something that has not happened yet in a meaningful way.