Winkle wrote, “We expect Q3 results to meet our revenue forecast and guidance, while we see opportunity for EPS upside on greater expense control than we have forecasted. We believe the key takeaway will be further narrowed sales and volume point declines (on a YoY basis) across most regions, setting up the likelihood of a return to volume point growth in Q4 and demonstrating a moderating impact from the marketing plan changes early in the year.”
“We expect the daily consumption model and successful customer loyalty program to continue to deliver strong growth, as we forecast a 40%+ (similar to Q2) increase in sales and volume points. The loyalty program is essentially an incentivized preferred customer program that improves line of sight on product sales as ~25% of regional volume in Q2 was purchased directly from Herbalife.”
Bottom line, “Growth should remain elusive in the Q3 report, pressured both by the weight of changes to the marketing plan and a significant negative currency impact that continues to heighten. However, HLF is close to cycling through its marketing plan changes and anniversarying the most dramatic strengthening of the US dollar.”
The analyst reiterated a Buy rating on shares of Herbalife Ltd., with a price target of $58, which implies an upside of 6% from current levels.
According to TipRanks.com, which measures analysts’ and bloggers’ success rate based on how their calls perform, analyst Scott Van Winkle has a total average return of 3.7% and a 46.5% success rate. Winkle has a 10.1% average return when recommending HLF, and is ranked #909 out of 3773 analysts.
Out of the 5 analysts polled by TipRanks, 3 rate Herbalife stock a Buy, while 2 rate the stock a Hold. With a return potential of 24%, the stock’s consensus target price stands at $67.98.