BMO Capital analyst Keith Bachman weighed in today with a few insights on Hewlett-Packard Company (NYSE:HPQ), ahead of the company’s Securities Analyst Meeting on September 15, 2015, in the San Francisco Bay Area.
Bachman wrote, “For next week’s analyst event, we think the most important issue to be discussed is HP’s FY2016 projected FCF. To be clear, many issues are important, such as printer margins and growth rates, but we think FCF is the most important. We believe that HP will guide consolidated FY2016 FCF to between $5.5 billion and $6.0 billion, versus our estimate of $5.6 billion. The consensus estimate for HP FY2016 FCF/share is $3.09, which we think equates to about $5.5 billion in FCF. If HP guides to the range suggested, we believe this will be viewed positively by investors, although HP’s FCF is not the only variable for its stock. We understand that HP will likely guide FCF by business unit (two numbers), but we think investors will look at the aggregate FCF guidance.”
“We think HP’s stock has more upside than downside given valuation. However, even at current valuation, HP is trading at 10x-11x our forecast FY2016 FCF, which we think is reasonable, but not yet compelling,” the analyst concluded.
Bachman reiterated a Market Perform rating on Hewlett-Packard shares, with a price target of $33, which represents a potential upside of 21% from where the stock is currently trading.
According to TipRanks.com, which measures analysts’ and bloggers’ success rate based on how their calls perform, analyst Keith Bachman has a total average return of 19.9% and a 63.8% success rate. Bachman has a -3.9% average return when recommending HPQ, and is ranked #50 out of 3754 analysts.
Out of the 27 analysts polled by TipRanks, 14 rate Hewlett-Packard Company stock a Buy, while 13 rate the stock a Hold. With a return potential of 43.4%, the stock’s consensus target price stands at $39.20.