In a research report published on Monday, RBC Capital analyst Adnan Butt reiterated an Outperform rating on shares of MannKind Corporation (NASDAQ:MNKD), but reduced the price target to $9 (from $10), which still implies an upside of 114% from current levels. The decreased price target comes after partner Sanofi reports that Afrezza sales were about $22 million during the second-quarter, up from $1.1 million in the first-quarter.
Butt wrote, “Sales are up but still not at levels we would consider material for a franchise that could be a blockbuster, in our view. IMS prescription data appears stagnated the past 3-4 weeks; however, these numbers have not been good at predicting actual Afrezza sales (reported sales are 3x higher than IMSbased predictions). We have raised estimates for 2015 (to $9M from $5M for Afrezza) but reduced them going forward. Our price target is reduced to reflect the slower ramp and a slightly higher discount rate.”
Furthermore, “We continue to believe Afrezza could be big if the current commercial and clinical, both real and perceived, hurdles can be ironed out, including availability of a pulmonary function test, physician/ patient training, payer authorization/ approval rate, and so on. MNKD also announced tripling Afrezza capacity to 300M cartridges annually (including for the 12U dose launching in 3Q) on July 31st, which all else being equal, would be a bullish sign. In our view, sales lagged expectations but judging the trajectory 6-12 months post launch is more prudent. On the 2Q:15 earnings call we would look for any metrics discussing how these roadblocks are or could be addressed.”
According to TipRanks.com, which measures analysts’ and bloggers’ success rate based on how their calls perform, analyst Adnan Butt has a total average return of -3.9% and a 50.0% success rate. Butt has a -29.7% average return when recommending MNKD, and is ranked #3294 out of 3724 analysts.
Out of the 9 analysts polled by TipRanks, 4 rate MannKind Corporation stock a Buy, 3 rate the stock a Hold and 2 recommend Sell. With a return potential of 101.4%, the stock’s consensus target price stands at $8.47.