RBC Capital analyst Mark Mahaney is weighing in with some forecasts for Alibaba Group (NYSE:BABA), as the company will likely report December ‘14Q results in early February. The analyst rates the stock an Outperform with a $130 price target.
Mahaney noted, “We are forecasting December quarter revenue of 25.8B RMB, below consensus at 27.6B RMB. Our projection for EBITDA of 13.1B RMB (51% margin) is modestly below the Street at 14.2B RMB (55% margin), and our Adjusted EPS estimate of 4.37 RMB is slightly below the consensus estimate of 4.64 RMB. Based on intra-quarter data points and our model sensitivity work, we believe December quarter Street estimates are reasonable.”
The analyst added, “In terms of the stock call, we are positive on BABA’s total addressable market, business model, management team & competitive moats (our 4M structure), and we view current valuation as reasonable. We also see BABA’s 37.5% Alipay stake as providing potentially material option value.”
According to TipRanks.com, which measures analysts’ and bloggers’ success rate based on how their calls perform, analyst Mark Mahaney has a total average return of 21.3% and a 57.9% success rate. Mahaney has a -5.5% average return when recommending BABA, and is ranked #21 out of 3426 analysts.