J.P. Morgan’s healthcare analyst Cory Kasimov weighed in today with a review on Novavax (NASDAQ:NVAX), straight from the 2015 J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference in San Francisco. The analyst rates the stock an Overweight with a $7 price target.
Kasimov observed, “CEO Stanley Erck largely reviewed the company’s 6 clinical programs underway and emphasized the substantial unmet need in RSV, seasonal influenza, and emerging viruses ahead of what we expect to be an important year for NVAX with data readouts expected from all 6 programs.”
The following bullets contain some highlights from the presentation:
- Large Ph2 RSV trial in elderly is underway; efficacy data will inform powering and primary endpoint of Ph3 trial; NVAX thinks this could be first licensed product.
- On Ebola, NVAX believes longer-term value derived from this program (currently unclear how economic benefit gets to shareholders).
- NVAX believes it has several advantages over other Ebola programs: current vaccines only have stability at -80 degrees, NVAX’s vaccine is based on current circulating strain (other are based on strains 30 yrs old), the co can make millions of doses in 90 days (others could make 1M doses in a yr).
- Plans to start Ph1 Ebola trial in the next 3 wks with data in 3Q; safety,
immunogenicity and animal model data (confident in non-human primate data) can
be used for regulatory package.
According to TipRanks.com, which measures analysts’ and bloggers’ success rate based on how their calls perform, analyst Cory Kasimov has a total average return of 12.3% and a 56.1% success rate. Kasimov has a 34.6% average return when recommending NVAX, and is ranked #511 out of 3426 analysts.