Cantor Raises Jazz Pharmaceuticals Price Target On Xyrem Scenario Analysis


In a research report issued today, Cantor analyst Irina Rivkind assigned a Hold rating on Jazz Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:JAZZ) and raised her price target to $197 (from $151), which represents a potential upside of 16.5% from where the stock is currently trading.

Koffler wrote, “We are raising our price target to $197 from $151 after conducting scenario analysis around Xyrem durability: We assess two possible outcomes to arrive at our new blended price target: (1) Progression of Flamel’s micropump drug with market entry in mid-2019 to capture 30% of the Xyrem franchise prescriptions by 2024. If we incorporate this competitor into our estimates and extend our DCF to 2024 (while lowering risk-rate from 14% to 12%), we arrive at a hypothetical $182 valuation for JAZZ. This represents a more realistic scenario than near-term generic entry, in our view, and we have made this our base- case assumption. (2) Jazz settles with Roxane in 2015 for a generic launch date between 2024-2033, switches patients to JZP-386, and no Flamel competition. Xyrem/JZP-386 sales exceed $2.0B in 2024. Under this scenario we would expect the stock to approach $211/share, with some potential premium for the company’s anticipated cash accumulation.”

According to TipRanks.com, which measures analysts’ and bloggers’ success rate based on how their calls perform, analyst Irina Rivkind Koffler has a total average return of 15.3% and a 63.5% success rate. Rivkind Koffler has a 120.8% average return when recommending JAZZ, and is ranked #162 out of 3355 analysts.